Satoshi..
0x564a61772f5fde1c3e0806e814a193983c2f8871
- Realised P&L
- $1.1k
- Volume
- $631.3k
- Markets traded
- 6,164
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded6,164
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration13.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$94.40at 0.840Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on August 1?
- +$62.41at 0.934Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on July 17?
- +$58.10at 0.917Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 41°C on July 16?
- +$55.62at 0.905Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on July 10?
- +$54.90at 0.909Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on July 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 20:35 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or higher on August 5? | SELL | 0.998 | $44.46 |
| 08-04 19:00 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on August 5? | BUY | 0.9897796454 | $42.99 |
| 08-04 18:51 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 4? | SELL | 0.9354004906 | $244.07 |
| 08-04 15:35 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.9986893032 | $22.50 |
| 08-04 13:05 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on August 4? | SELL | 0.998 | $4.99 |
| 08-04 11:34 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.99 | $58.99 |
| 08-04 09:25 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C or higher on August 6? | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 08-04 08:05 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.999 | $20.10 |
| 08-04 04:35 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.9834848485 | $11.68 |
| 08-03 21:26 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.99 | $62.99 |
| 08-03 19:00 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on August 4? | BUY | 0.9897697444 | $42.99 |
| 08-03 18:31 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 3? | SELL | 0.9806813263 | $42.59 |
| 08-03 17:34 | Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on August 3? | SELL | 0.983606882 | $60.60 |
| 08-03 17:31 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.8885833333 | $10.66 |
| 08-03 17:31 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.8898510575 | $29.87 |