0x557ACa156C39e007146e3b3372c4fd6150eA3D56-1771771059343
0x557aca156c39e007146e3b3372c4fd6150ea3d56
- Realised P&L
- $16.4k
- Volume
- $905.6k
- Markets traded
- 131
- Open portfolio
- $86.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded131
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.3kat 0.042US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$12.7kat 0.554Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$2.1kat 0.045Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand?
- +$1.7kat 0.170US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
- +$1.7kat 0.245US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 09:01 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.018 | $9.99 |
| 07-21 09:01 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.0599999993 | $80.00 |
| 07-21 09:01 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.0854661352 | $300.00 |
| 07-21 09:00 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.0420122172 | $100.00 |
| 07-20 09:37 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 20:57 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.0978261295 | $225.00 |
| 07-19 08:50 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.1485100478 | $300.00 |
| 07-19 08:50 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.1259145664 | $200.00 |
| 07-19 08:50 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.1109451035 | $100.00 |
| 07-18 18:10 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.1228581575 | $400.00 |
| 07-16 20:49 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | BUY | 0.0324342139 | $150.00 |
| 07-16 20:47 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0073857089 | $75.00 |
| 07-16 13:05 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | BUY | 0.0377389214 | $50.00 |
| 07-16 13:05 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | BUY | 0.0355304875 | $50.00 |
| 07-16 13:05 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | BUY | 0.0282021043 | $100.00 |