lieberallein
0x54c581a308343c28cf741093c5911070e1d1a121
- Realised P&L
- $-387.83
- Volume
- $18.6k
- Markets traded
- 331
- Open portfolio
- $562.13
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded331
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$73.08at 0.598Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
- +$71.55at 0.241Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
- +$58.18at 0.632Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$50.24at 0.252Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
- +$36.97at 0.439Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 23:29 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | SELL | 0.66 | $4.63 |
| 07-14 14:44 | Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by March 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.83 | $14.56 |
| 07-09 15:38 | Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5699999966 | $10.00 |
| 07-08 23:28 | Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $16.20 |
| 07-08 23:26 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.91 | $80.86 |
| 07-08 23:22 | Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6343793955 | $10.00 |
| 07-07 20:44 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.66 | $110.17 |
| 07-07 13:40 | Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $4.21 |
| 07-05 12:23 | Moscow air traffic suspended by July 31? | BUY | 0.4199999899 | $10.00 |
| 07-01 12:54 | Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $10.00 |
| 06-20 10:21 | Starmer out by June 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.5799999861 | $10.00 |
| 06-19 13:02 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999869 | $10.00 |
| 06-18 14:59 | Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | BUY | 0.1011085083 | $10.00 |
| 06-15 15:00 | Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | SELL | 0.94 | $14.10 |
| 06-13 14:20 | Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY | 0.6666666667 | $10.00 |