niugege
0x538a8b0a48122ea5c3f817a872053f08cc114bc8
- Realised P&L
- $-6.39
- Volume
- $7.7k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $14.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration4.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 1? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $14.11 | +$0.01 |
| Rutgers vs. Washington · Rutgers | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.10 |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 27-August 2? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.00at 0.990Did Kanye sell his twitter account?
- +$0.50at 0.995Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?
- +$0.31at 0.990Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18?
- +$0.20at 0.998Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 8?
- +$0.20at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 10:10 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.10 |
| 08-01 10:06 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.61 |
| 06-08 09:23 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? | BUY | 0.9989999905 | $95.00 |
| 06-01 09:43 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 1? | BUY | 0.9989999905 | $95.00 |
| 05-23 03:07 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? | BUY | 0.9989999905 | $95.00 |
| 05-17 10:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? | BUY | 0.998 | $95.00 |
| 05-13 06:40 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13? | BUY | 0.9989999905 | $95.00 |
| 05-07 11:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on May 8? | BUY | 0.9989999905 | $95.00 |
| 05-04 10:38 | Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $95.00 |
| 04-26 09:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $94.99 |
| 04-23 12:30 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $93.99 |
| 04-18 08:04 | Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $93.99 |
| 04-15 07:30 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 98°F or higher on April 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $93.99 |
| 04-10 09:28 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $93.99 |
| 04-03 09:43 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $93.99 |