citizenNY
0x52b6926b24f1c77dddb7d9efe71b05275d936c7d
- Realised P&L
- $91.57
- Volume
- $34.2k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $134.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.069 | $21.08 | +$1.08 |
| Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.011 | $19.17 | −$0.83 |
| Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.009 | $17.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.035 | $15.82 | −$0.69 |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.075 | $15.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.042 | $13.83 | +$0.83 |
| Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.030 | $11.65 | +$0.57 |
| Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.007 | $10.48 | −$3.49 |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.007 | $10.00 | −$9.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.70at 0.004Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?
- +$15.41at 0.780Nothing Ever Happens: November
- +$12.41at 0.029Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship?
- +$12.18at 0.310Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?
- +$12.08at 0.024Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 01:37 | Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.0547327441 | $8.11 |
| 07-12 01:37 | Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.0011151269 | $0.91 |
| 07-12 01:37 | Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.003 | $5.92 |
| 04-30 21:39 | Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.00 |
| 04-28 13:25 | Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.041 | $3.68 |
| 04-28 13:09 | Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.0146724967 | $19.56 |
| 11-06 19:23 | Nothing Ever Happens: November | BUY | 0.7799999974 | $54.64 |
| 10-08 21:34 | Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $41.76 |
| 09-30 22:32 | US government shutdown by October 1? | BUY | 0.9199999984 | $22.73 |
| 09-05 22:54 | Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September? | BUY | 0.3103716814 | $5.48 |
| 09-05 22:51 | Chiefs vs. Chargers | BUY | 0.6099999756 | $5.00 |
| 09-05 22:50 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | BUY | 0.8279999901 | $5.00 |
| 09-05 22:47 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.8799999965 | $20.00 |