DorothyMejia9139
0x4fa5a28cd9e3ecfe93d80c46346deae4d3342380
- Realised P&L
- $1.0k
- Volume
- $190.1k
- Markets traded
- 188
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded188
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.660 | 0.890 | $550.91 | +$142.37 |
| T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka · Afghanistan | 0.530 | 0.500 | $435.50 | −$26.13 |
| Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100? · No | 0.100 | 0.485 | $147.44 | +$117.04 |
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.813 | 0.124 | $120.90 | −$671.77 |
| Over $800M raised on Coinbase in 2026? · No | 0.440 | 0.690 | $37.25 | +$13.49 |
| Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.255 | $7.39 | −$3.92 |
| Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.210 | $0.63 | −$1.92 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.025 | $0.02 | −$0.69 |
| Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$885.01at 0.260Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?
- +$529.19at 0.731Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20?
- +$435.60at 0.120Will Leavitt say "Baby" or "Pregnant" during the next White House press briefing?
- +$432.30at 0.550Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?
- +$385.50at 0.500Solana Up or Down - February 11, 8PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-11 18:27 | Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? | SELL | 0.88 | $102.96 |
| 04-10 13:17 | Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? | BUY | 0.79 | $92.43 |
| 04-09 18:00 | Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.553 | $302.49 |
| 04-09 11:29 | Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | SELL | 0.72 | $167.76 |
| 04-09 11:28 | Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | SELL | 0.72 | $59.04 |
| 04-07 20:51 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $408.54 |
| 03-31 08:01 | Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | SELL | 0.68 | $455.60 |
| 03-30 13:52 | Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | SELL | 0.67 | $6.70 |
| 03-29 15:00 | Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | BUY | 0.69 | $686.55 |
| 03-26 04:24 | Will Trump say "Eat our Lunch" this week? (March 29) | SELL | 0.84 | $35.28 |
| 03-26 04:23 | Will Trump say "Eat our Lunch" this week? (March 29) | SELL | 0.84 | $38.64 |
| 03-26 04:22 | Will Trump say "Eat our Lunch" this week? (March 29) | SELL | 0.84 | $39.48 |
| 03-25 19:00 | Will Trump say "Ass" or "Shit" this week? (March 29) | SELL | 0.65 | $402.35 |
| 03-24 16:26 | Will Trump say "Ass" or "Shit" this week? (March 29) | BUY | 0.62 | $414.78 |
| 03-24 05:27 | Anduril IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.71 | $124.25 |