jam516
0x4e8deac8c35ff5321fe8a0a9fb6dfc4b0bbf3b13
- Realised P&L
- $-2.6k
- Volume
- $232.2k
- Markets traded
- 830
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded830
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$930.00at 0.690US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
- +$469.14at 0.810US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$342.76at 0.745Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
- +$338.68at 0.781Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
- +$314.07at 0.864Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 15:57 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 4? | BUY | 0.22 | $2.20 |
| 08-04 15:53 | Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.31 | $6.20 |
| 08-04 15:52 | Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.37 | $7.40 |
| 08-04 15:52 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.18 | $3.60 |
| 08-04 15:33 | Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? | BUY | 0.6908327972 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 15:32 | Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? | BUY | 0.689999999 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 15:32 | Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? | BUY | 0.6979999941 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 15:32 | Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? | SELL | 0.301 | $30.93 |
| 08-04 15:31 | Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? | BUY | 0.6885454439 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 15:31 | Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? | BUY | 0.709999998 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 15:31 | Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? | BUY | 0.7054204096 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 15:27 | Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? | BUY | 0.779 | $62.32 |
| 08-04 15:16 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 4? | BUY | 0.59 | $5.90 |
| 08-04 15:15 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 4? | BUY | 0.3 | $3.00 |
| 08-04 15:04 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.99 |