0x4d9c5e081fE1a6Cb02f616e7bE38B7748F7fF449-1768870851203
0x4d9c5e081fe1a6cb02f616e7be38b7748f7ff449
- Realised P&L
- $-73.75
- Volume
- $4.8k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $28.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO article 5 before 2027? · Yes | 0.105 | 0.065 | $28.60 | −$17.80 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$81.00 |
| Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.60 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes | 0.443 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.90at 0.650Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
- +$33.70at 0.579Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$28.80at 0.550Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$19.47at 0.777Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
- +$15.00at 0.850US strikes Iraq by March 31
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-30 18:57 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.4433333333 | $13.30 |
| 05-30 13:01 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.55 | $35.20 |
| 05-16 23:10 | Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 04-09 06:48 | Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.904 | $55.40 |
| 04-09 06:41 | Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.911 | $79.48 |
| 03-27 00:12 | Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.08 | $4.13 |
| 03-08 00:31 | US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $1.70 |
| 03-04 14:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | BUY | 0.4299999871 | $4.85 |
| 01-26 19:29 | Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? | SELL | 0.59 | $17.70 |
| 01-26 18:32 | Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? | BUY | 0.61 | $12.20 |
| 01-23 23:25 | Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 24? | SELL | 0.951 | $1.90 |
| 01-23 18:07 | Will Trump shake hands with Aleksandar Vučić at the World Economic Forum? | SELL | 0.995 | $4.74 |
| 01-23 02:50 | Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? | SELL | 0.962 | $1.50 |
| 01-22 23:17 | Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.60 |
| 01-22 21:38 | Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 22? | SELL | 0.17 | $0.81 |