0x4d745ea9dD3594f52EA1ab0073D03d45994D3b80-1764257678846
0x4d745ea9dd3594f52ea1ab0073d03d45994d3b80
- Realised P&L
- $553.79
- Volume
- $47.1k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $344.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.015 | $241.79 | +$40.87 |
| Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.032 | $64.58 | +$54.33 |
| Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.011 | $38.11 | −$219.87 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev · Alexander Zverev | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.70 |
| Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? · Yes | 0.721 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.11 |
| Maduro mugshot released by Monday? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$471.04at 0.250Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$194.30at 0.178Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$145.34at 0.189Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$40.50at 0.055Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$23.12at 0.835Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.1m?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 22:17 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.1 | $90.00 |
| 07-20 14:49 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.958 | $95.79 |
| 07-20 14:49 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.343 | $323.63 |
| 07-19 22:14 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.055 | $48.00 |
| 07-19 21:52 | Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.005 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 21:51 | Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.005 | $5.25 |
| 07-19 21:13 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.19 | $49.40 |
| 07-19 21:11 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.189 | $17.01 |
| 07-19 21:11 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.188 | $5.64 |
| 07-19 21:06 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.189 | $56.70 |
| 07-19 21:05 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.188 | $38.31 |
| 07-12 16:50 | Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.008 | $50.00 |
| 07-12 16:48 | Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.008 | $50.00 |
| 07-12 16:47 | Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev | BUY | 0.3899999967 | $30.00 |
| 07-12 14:21 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.27 | $569.70 |