0x4d44fe165b941ee818c8306c43e1c7adf8c8997d
- Realised P&L
- $153.11
- Volume
- $5.5k
- Markets traded
- 95
- Open portfolio
- $30.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded95
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 5? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.525 | $10.50 | +$4.10 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.475 | $8.35 | +$0.97 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.435 | $4.29 | +$0.25 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 6? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.425 | $2.84 | −$0.03 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 6? · Yes | 0.389 | 0.410 | $2.25 | +$0.12 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.165 | $1.78 | −$0.05 |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 5? · Yes | 0.237 | 0.245 | $1.09 | +$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$74.45at 0.359Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 28?
- +$51.25at 0.357Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 31?
- +$46.59at 0.245Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 31?
- +$29.66at 0.074Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 30?
- +$19.71at 0.420Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 06:36 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 6? | BUY | 0.4299999469 | $1.62 |
| 08-05 06:05 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 5? | BUY | 0.2370647741 | $1.05 |
| 08-05 06:02 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.1699999368 | $1.83 |
| 08-05 05:59 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.4199999807 | $7.38 |
| 08-05 05:55 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.4099999625 | $4.04 |
| 08-05 05:35 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 6? | BUY | 0.4099999072 | $1.06 |
| 08-05 04:36 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 6? | BUY | 0.429999914 | $1.25 |
| 08-05 04:36 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 6? | BUY | 0.3699998963 | $1.07 |
| 08-04 21:27 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 4? | SELL | 0.3745190563 | $4.13 |
| 08-04 21:21 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 4? | BUY | 0.4199998574 | $1.06 |
| 08-04 20:57 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 4? | BUY | 0.18 | $0.66 |
| 08-04 20:56 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 4? | SELL | 0.8283440308 | $12.91 |
| 08-04 20:35 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 4? | BUY | 0.4112197013 | $1.27 |
| 08-04 20:35 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 4? | BUY | 0.4299999371 | $3.76 |
| 08-04 20:25 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 4? | BUY | 0.4599999306 | $1.06 |