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0x4b0f368eda2ad89f8c462089643f81e17c5034ef
- Realised P&L
- $-239.28
- Volume
- $3.6k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $50.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.485 | $26.94 | −$3.06 |
| Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.435 | $19.77 | −$0.23 |
| Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.500 | $3.33 | +$0.33 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.45at 0.440Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $480–500 in 2025?
- +$24.38at 0.290Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
- +$10.77at 0.650Lecornu out as French PM by October 31?
- +$10.00at 0.750Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$6.33at 0.240Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience for the week (April 5)?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 07:53 | Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - United21 Group B | BUY | 0.6899999917 | $5.00 |
| 08-03 07:51 | Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4499999625 | $3.00 |
| 08-03 07:50 | Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 07:50 | Will Wix.com (WIX) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.5899999705 | $5.00 |
| 08-03 07:40 | Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? | BUY | 0.4399999921 | $20.00 |
| 07-29 19:03 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5399999971 | $30.00 |
| 04-27 12:16 | Will Trump say "Love Trump" or "Loves Trump" in April? | SELL | 0.17 | $0.23 |
| 04-27 12:16 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $13.29 |
| 04-21 15:37 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? | SELL | 0.43 | $11.81 |
| 04-21 14:21 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.395 | $7.31 |
| 04-21 14:19 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? | BUY | 0.3546797857 | $9.48 |
| 04-21 14:10 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? | SELL | 0.31 | $6.76 |
| 04-19 20:01 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? | BUY | 0.2699999733 | $5.72 |
| 04-19 19:52 | Will Strava’s market cap be between $4B and $5B at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.058803569 | $4.35 |
| 04-19 19:44 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999986 | $13.29 |