ddfr45
0x4b084adb0978e02eb729a113b7856bd482236d65
- Realised P&L
- $-228.85
- Volume
- $14.8k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $12.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? · No | 0.890 | 0.890 | $12.46 | +$0.00 |
| Utah vs. Canadiens · Utah | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$231.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.57at 0.978Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$0.47at 0.991Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July?
- +$0.41at 0.992Will Solana reach $300 in May?
- +$0.37at 0.585Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$0.32at 0.994Will Solana reach $230 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-22 13:31 | Will Solana reach $160 in February? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.13 |
| 02-22 13:30 | Will Solana reach $170 in February? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.00 |
| 02-22 13:30 | Will Solana reach $180 in February? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.00 |
| 02-22 13:30 | Will Solana reach $190 in February? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.00 |
| 02-22 13:30 | Will Solana reach $200 in February? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.00 |
| 02-22 13:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 25? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.00 |
| 02-22 13:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 25? | BUY | 0.992 | $3.00 |
| 02-22 13:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 24? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.00 |
| 02-22 13:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.00 |
| 02-22 13:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.00 |
| 11-08 04:16 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.978 | $25.56 |
| 11-08 04:14 | Utah vs. Canadiens | BUY | 0.5 | $231.32 |
| 11-08 04:10 | Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? | SELL | 0.996 | $53.15 |
| 09-28 09:19 | Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $53.04 |
| 08-31 08:26 | Will Solana reach $230 in August? | BUY | 0.994 | $52.72 |