alonakrt
0x4a3b81679151e91b86ef48994222a8c2c01739fc
- Realised P&L
- $-20.51
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $27.31
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration90.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.365 | $14.60 | −$2.20 |
| Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Sean Strickland next? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.205 | $12.71 | −$5.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.28at 0.180Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24?
- +$0.49at 0.170Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 National League Championship Series?
- +$0.11at 0.194Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?
- +$0.10at 0.410Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
- +$0.00at 0.380Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 08:18 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $5.50 on September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $1.25 |
| 07-30 15:01 | Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.197 | $0.40 |
| 07-17 12:30 | Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31? | SELL | 0.42 | $4.15 |
| 07-15 20:06 | Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.18 | $2.41 |
| 07-12 08:35 | UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | SELL | 0.26 | $4.58 |
| 06-25 05:12 | Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? | SELL | 0.39 | $26.13 |
| 06-24 16:59 | Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.82 |
| 06-22 15:53 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? | SELL | 0.3 | $15.71 |