0x4a2f5DcEA74601cdB63f8A09Bf5A62Aa06042bC6-1766357155753
0x4a2f5dcea74601cdb63f8a09bf5a62aa06042bc6
- Realised P&L
- $-698.38
- Volume
- $145.3k
- Markets traded
- 261
- Open portfolio
- $19.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded261
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$240.44at 0.045Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
- +$224.54at 0.571Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$212.82at 0.460Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$193.23at 0.436US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$161.82at 0.172Khamenei public appearance by Friday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 14:57 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.949 | $19.17 |
| 07-28 21:46 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.2475247525 | $5.00 |
| 07-28 09:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.1299999859 | $7.00 |
| 07-28 09:53 | Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.0699999874 | $5.00 |
| 06-29 19:03 | Brazil leading at halftime? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.93 |
| 06-29 19:03 | Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? | SELL | 0.999 | $7.85 |
| 06-29 16:49 | Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? | BUY | 0.55 | $2.16 |
| 06-29 16:49 | Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? | BUY | 0.55 | $2.16 |
| 06-29 16:49 | Japan leading at halftime? | BUY | 0.84 | $3.30 |
| 06-29 16:49 | Brazil leading at halftime? | BUY | 0.6 | $2.36 |
| 06-29 10:34 | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0250011198 | $12.00 |
| 06-18 14:19 | Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $1.64 |
| 06-18 14:18 | Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? | BUY | 0.139999964 | $3.19 |
| 06-18 14:18 | Exact Score: Any Other Score? | BUY | 0.11 | $3.19 |
| 06-18 14:18 | Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? | BUY | 0.0259999922 | $3.19 |