0x4A2E7F1CA66d48F99E9dBb0F0Bba6ccf633f2511-1782792189445
0x4a2e7f1ca66d48f99e9dbb0f0bba6ccf633f2511
- Realised P&L
- $-7.69
- Volume
- $184.62
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $3.73
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase August 4-10? · No | 0.960 | 0.895 | $3.73 | −$0.27 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET · Down | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.14at 0.665Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
- +$2.10at 0.785Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
- +$1.43at 0.875Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
- +$-0.09at 0.430Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
- +$-10.00at 0.480Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 11:59 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase August 4-10? | BUY | 0.96 | $4.00 |
| 07-18 06:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | BUY | 0.4799999808 | $5.00 |
| 07-18 06:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | BUY | 0.4799999808 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 08:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | BUY | 0.059999989 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 08:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET | SELL | 0.95 | $12.09 |
| 07-17 08:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET | BUY | 0.7899999826 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 08:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET | BUY | 0.7799998596 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 08:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET | SELL | 0.94 | $14.14 |
| 07-17 08:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.6099999756 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 08:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.7299999679 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 08:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET | BUY | 0.8799999859 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 08:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET | BUY | 0.8699999983 | $5.00 |
| 06-30 06:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | SELL | 0.41 | $1.91 |
| 06-30 06:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | BUY | 0.429999828 | $1.00 |
| 06-30 06:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | BUY | 0.429999828 | $1.00 |