umbai
0x49951b477f583470ae65d06564bab6d000286f26
- Realised P&L
- $1.64
- Volume
- $654.97
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $109.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 5? · No | 0.997 | 0.997 | $109.00 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.55at 0.995Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?
- +$0.44at 0.996Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February?
- +$0.30at 0.997Will BNB reach $800 in June?
- +$0.11at 0.999Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8?
- +$0.08at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 13:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 5? | BUY | 0.997 | $109.00 |
| 06-26 10:39 | Will BNB dip to $300 in June? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.00 |
| 06-26 10:39 | Will BNB reach $800 in June? | BUY | 0.997 | $100.00 |
| 05-05 09:40 | Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.995 | $109.00 |
| 04-02 12:18 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $18.88 |
| 04-02 12:18 | Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.99 |
| 04-02 12:18 | Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $39.99 |
| 04-02 12:18 | Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $20.00 |
| 03-07 09:39 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? | BUY | 0.999 | $108.78 |
| 02-22 01:18 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? | BUY | 0.9959999959 | $108.35 |