Darkmans
0x4988592b679f5c16253d52207ac09cbde26ae0e6
- Realised P&L
- $-529.58
- Volume
- $142.4k
- Markets traded
- 100
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded100
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.452 | 0.345 | $1.2k | −$359.04 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? · Yes | 0.344 | 0.025 | $1.79 | −$22.86 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.60 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$672.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$638.57at 0.633 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$376.50at 0.172US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
- +$372.09at 0.201Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
- +$316.79at 0.667US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
- +$236.08at 0.597Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 09:03 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.26 | $7.56 |
| 07-08 09:01 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.27 | $19.71 |
| 07-08 08:57 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.26 | $3.38 |
| 07-08 08:55 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $10.00 |
| 07-08 08:55 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.186 | $89.28 |
| 07-08 08:44 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $86.24 |
| 07-08 08:43 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.21 | $12.07 |
| 07-08 08:38 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.2135927958 | $20.64 |
| 07-08 08:38 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | BUY | 0.32 | $4.80 |
| 07-08 08:38 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.2365346535 | $9.56 |
| 07-08 08:38 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.2393537604 | $171.86 |
| 07-08 08:38 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | BUY | 0.35 | $19.86 |
| 07-08 08:37 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.2205675589 | $27.36 |
| 07-08 08:37 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.2265799214 | $275.48 |
| 07-08 08:37 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | SELL | 0.61 | $662.09 |