0x4987cfd16f58e20282ba1857e4a5fcae445860e2
- Realised P&L
- $-17.44
- Volume
- $707.22
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $18.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.238 | 0.266 | $3.22 | +$0.33 |
| Will Marat Kambolov win the 2026 South Ossetia presidential elections? · Yes | 0.970 | 0.971 | $2.96 | +$0.00 |
| Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.955 | $2.96 | −$0.02 |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No | 0.870 | 0.875 | $2.71 | +$0.02 |
| Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? · No | 0.490 | 0.355 | $2.12 | −$0.80 |
| Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on August 3? · No | 0.990 | 0.999 | $1.70 | +$0.01 |
| Will Aq Jol win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? · No | 0.970 | 0.878 | $1.43 | −$0.15 |
| Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.940 | $1.27 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.68at 0.440Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Puebla end in a draw?
- +$3.15at 0.480Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5
- +$2.69at 0.520LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
- +$2.23at 0.530Winnipeg: August Holmgren vs Garrett Johns
- +$1.95at 0.600Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 18:30 | Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on August 3? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.69 |
| 08-02 20:52 | Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.69 |
| 08-02 10:06 | LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group | BUY | 0.7 | $2.94 |
| 08-02 09:52 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 2? | SELL | 0.97 | $3.06 |
| 08-02 06:56 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 2? | BUY | 0.9399999873 | $2.97 |
| 08-02 05:10 | Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.956 | $0.01 |
| 08-02 03:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on August 1? | SELL | 0.956 | $1.02 |
| 08-02 02:55 | Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) | BUY | 0.329999952 | $2.89 |
| 08-02 02:22 | Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on August 1? | SELL | 0.904 | $0.09 |
| 08-02 02:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on August 1? | BUY | 0.9199999659 | $1.08 |
| 08-02 00:25 | Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.941 | $0.01 |
| 08-02 00:25 | Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.941 | $0.01 |
| 08-02 00:25 | Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.941 | $0.01 |
| 08-02 00:25 | Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.941 | $0.01 |
| 08-02 00:25 | Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.941 | $0.01 |