0x47bDc15fc71a5dCd16E88ABA8193Cb9bF9d6E956-1760366591638
0x47bdc15fc71a5dcd16e88aba8193cb9bf9d6e956
- Realised P&L
- $116.13
- Volume
- $2.6k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $14.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.080 | $14.40 | −$19.86 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31? · Yes | 0.212 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Another US military action against Iran before 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Israel strikes Iran by October 31? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Israel strikes Iran before 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will the US strike Iraq next? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| US strikes Iran by October 31? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Israel strike Iraq by October 31? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.75at 0.350Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?
- +$35.94at 0.547Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?
- +$31.39at 0.011Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5?
- +$18.42at 0.520Lakers vs. Suns
- +$11.50at 0.580Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-04 09:36 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $21.00 |
| 02-04 09:35 | Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $40.50 |
| 02-03 16:08 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $39.73 |
| 01-26 07:58 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $12.05 |
| 01-23 20:09 | Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $29.00 |
| 01-23 18:34 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.76 | $3.98 |
| 01-23 18:31 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $19.00 |
| 01-21 07:57 | Will the US strike Iraq next? | BUY | 0.008 | $1.00 |
| 01-20 11:04 | Will the US strike Iraq next? | BUY | 0.0120000002 | $1.00 |
| 01-17 23:39 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $41.24 |
| 01-16 08:27 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7516666667 | $22.55 |
| 01-11 18:14 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999851 | $34.00 |
| 01-11 18:09 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $21.84 |
| 01-11 14:08 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.54 | $10.80 |
| 01-05 13:00 | Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.144612 | $14.46 |