0x46cb63e89dfa29b11030ec75c863d3beca59cdb8
- Realised P&L
- $-290.36
- Volume
- $3.5k
- Markets traded
- 184
- Open portfolio
- $3.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded184
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.969 | $3.94 | +$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.64at 0.060Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$12.33at 0.320Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
- +$7.78at 0.090Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$5.20at 0.950Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 46% and 48%?
- +$5.04at 0.520Nuggets vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 15:25 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.28 |
| 08-02 18:49 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.22 |
| 08-02 11:17 | Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.998 | $1.27 |
| 08-01 16:54 | Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.22 |
| 08-01 01:32 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $3.15 |
| 07-27 21:03 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $3.01 |
| 07-22 14:12 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.96 | $2.98 |
| 07-17 21:21 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.53 |
| 07-14 05:00 | Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.998 | $2.48 |
| 07-13 19:28 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.9599997878 | $1.81 |
| 07-13 15:13 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.41 |
| 07-11 03:23 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10? | SELL | 0.998 | $2.48 |
| 07-09 02:13 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10? | BUY | 0.96 | $2.39 |
| 07-08 05:29 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 7? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.48 |
| 07-04 06:25 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 7? | BUY | 0.9499997786 | $2.36 |