toyz
0x45ee0c33577c6efccfd91d16af96cf239ffadc92
- Realised P&L
- $-326.13
- Volume
- $6.2k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $32.51
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.297 | 0.165 | $32.51 | −$26.09 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? · No | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.99at 0.016Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour and 15 minutes?
- +$4.10at 0.300Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes?
- +$-1.38at 0.122Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours and 15 minutes?
- +$-4.99at 0.100First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan
- +$-23.64at 0.192Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 03:37 | Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2974151276 | $58.60 |
| 03-06 10:41 | First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan | SELL | 0.0032998062 | $0.17 |
| 03-06 04:23 | First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan | BUY | 0.1 | $5.16 |
| 03-05 05:28 | First Round Pool C: Australia vs. Chinese Taipei | SELL | 0.004 | $5.16 |
| 03-05 04:58 | First Round Pool C: Australia vs. Chinese Taipei | BUY | 0.0508506736 | $32.16 |
| 03-05 04:46 | First Round Pool C: Australia vs. Chinese Taipei | BUY | 0.3022188911 | $100.00 |
| 03-05 04:37 | First Round Pool C: Australia vs. Chinese Taipei | BUY | 0.3700603292 | $100.00 |
| 03-05 04:33 | First Round Pool C: Australia vs. Chinese Taipei | BUY | 0.2599999903 | $15.00 |
| 01-31 12:46 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.007 | $12.70 |
| 01-25 02:34 | Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.89 |
| 01-25 02:23 | Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes? | BUY | 0.3499999879 | $10.10 |
| 01-25 02:23 | Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes? | SELL | 0.505 | $10.10 |
| 01-25 01:55 | Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes? | BUY | 0.1899999507 | $2.89 |
| 01-25 01:54 | Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours and 15 minutes? | SELL | 0.053 | $1.06 |
| 01-25 01:54 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.007 | $1.84 |