0x45E1aFFa5fdD7815CDc873ceB8E72200F3ddd7F6-1761352739379
0x45e1affa5fdd7815cdc873ceb8e72200f3ddd7f6
- Realised P&L
- $-114.47
- Volume
- $767.28
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $18.26
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-14.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Amy Klobuchar win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary election? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.993 | $18.26 | +$2.26 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes | 0.198 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.00 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.40 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.095 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.50 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.319 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.14 |
| Maduro out in 2025? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.50 |
| US forces in Venezuela by December 31? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.70at 0.790Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer?
- +$6.74at 0.690Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
- +$6.05at 0.570U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?
- +$1.20at 0.940Maduro trial scheduled by January 31?
- +$1.00at 0.900US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-28 03:12 | US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $64.00 |
| 01-16 21:00 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $5.40 |
| 01-15 00:41 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.095 | $8.55 |
| 01-15 00:40 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BUY | 0.6899999995 | $15.00 |
| 01-10 15:01 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.198019802 | $5.00 |
| 01-10 15:01 | Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.3175471698 | $16.83 |
| 01-09 14:59 | U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $116.88 |
| 01-08 00:48 | Will Amy Klobuchar win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.87 | $16.00 |
| 01-06 00:04 | Maduro trial scheduled by January 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $18.80 |
| 01-06 00:03 | U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $8.02 |
| 10-25 17:30 | US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | BUY | 0.67 | $33.50 |
| 10-25 17:30 | US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $9.00 |
| 10-25 10:22 | US forces in Venezuela by December 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 10-25 10:20 | Maduro out in 2025? | BUY | 0.2399999674 | $5.00 |