0x45dbbf0d3e327046ef534258406646e5505c1132
- Realised P&L
- $-68.24
- Volume
- $2.7k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $12.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.800 | 1.000 | $5.62 | +$1.12 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 30? · No | 0.700 | 1.000 | $4.64 | +$1.39 |
| Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays · Toronto Blue Jays | 0.656 | 1.000 | $1.32 | +$0.45 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? · No | 0.693 | 1.000 | $1.27 | +$0.39 |
| Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? · Yes | 0.122 | 0.001 | $0.11 | −$27.63 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.04 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.149 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.13 |
| New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners · New York Yankees | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.60 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? · No | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.33at 0.240Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
- +$2.41at 0.750Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- +$2.37at 0.110Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
- +$1.27at 0.729Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
- +$1.25at 0.120Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-15 00:15 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL | 0.54 | $6.66 |
| 04-12 17:30 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | BUY | 0.76 | $9.38 |
| 04-10 04:30 | Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $1.12 |
| 04-10 02:03 | Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $8.69 |
| 04-05 16:25 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $3.18 |
| 04-01 01:09 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL | 0.04 | $3.62 |
| 03-31 00:56 | New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners | BUY | 0.53 | $7.54 |
| 03-31 00:54 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.17 | $13.04 |
| 03-31 00:53 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.55 | $20.12 |
| 03-30 11:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 30? | BUY | 0.7 | $3.21 |
| 03-30 11:17 | Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | SELL | 0.11 | $2.53 |
| 03-30 11:16 | Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | BUY | 0.139 | $3.19 |
| 03-30 11:15 | Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | SELL | 0.12 | $2.93 |
| 03-30 11:12 | Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | BUY | 0.1447030353 | $3.53 |
| 03-30 11:11 | Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026? | SELL | 0.141 | $4.80 |