PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0x45dbbf0d3e327046ef534258406646e5505c1132

Realised P&L
$-68.24
Volume
$2.7k
Markets traded
28
Open portfolio
$12.96

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded28
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration45.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample27 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration43.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US forces enter Iran by December 31? · Yes0.8001.000$5.62+$1.12
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 30? · No0.7001.000$4.64+$1.39
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays · Toronto Blue Jays0.6561.000$1.32+$0.45
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? · No0.6931.000$1.27+$0.39
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? · Yes0.1220.001$0.11$27.63
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00$13.04
US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yes0.1490.000$0.00$3.13
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners · New York Yankees0.5300.000$0.00$7.60
US forces enter Iran by December 31? · No0.2400.000$0.00$4.17

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
04-15 00:15Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?SELL0.54$6.66
04-12 17:30Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?BUY0.76$9.38
04-10 04:30Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?SELL0.14$1.12
04-10 02:03Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?BUY0.11$8.69
04-05 16:25Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?SELL0.07$3.18
04-01 01:09Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?SELL0.04$3.62
03-31 00:56New York Yankees vs. Seattle MarinersBUY0.53$7.54
03-31 00:54Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY0.17$13.04
03-31 00:53US forces enter Iran by April 30?SELL0.55$20.12
03-30 11:19Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 30?BUY0.7$3.21
03-30 11:17Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?SELL0.11$2.53
03-30 11:16Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?BUY0.139$3.19
03-30 11:15Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?SELL0.12$2.93
03-30 11:12Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?BUY0.1447030353$3.53
03-30 11:11Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026?SELL0.141$4.80