0x45D3339d705d63eEbfF0D2D1eb1c2Fd5bb55eDa0-1769522480771
0x45d3339d705d63eebff0d2d1eb1c2fd5bb55eda0
- Realised P&L
- $-182.09
- Volume
- $62.7k
- Markets traded
- 199
- Open portfolio
- $706.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded199
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? · Yes | 0.993 | 1.000 | $629.68 | +$4.09 |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 2, 2026? · No | 0.942 | 0.982 | $49.10 | +$2.00 |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on August 2, 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.981 | $9.80 | +$0.30 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.968 | $9.68 | +$0.17 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.351 | 0.843 | $8.43 | +$4.92 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET · Down | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.96 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET · Up | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.77 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET · Up | 0.529 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.98 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.561 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
| Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score · No | 0.960 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET · Down | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET · Up | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$522.53at 0.974Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?
- +$268.50at 0.972Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?
- +$191.60at 0.556Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
- +$147.18at 0.565Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
- +$99.73at 0.959Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 23:59 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.55 | $5.50 |
| 08-02 23:26 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $12.40 |
| 08-02 20:23 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $18.60 |
| 08-02 20:22 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.50 |
| 08-02 20:22 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $19.00 |
| 07-29 23:05 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.935 | $4.78 |
| 07-29 22:25 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.889 | $17.78 |
| 07-29 21:54 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.9639999978 | $100.00 |
| 07-29 11:49 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | SELL | 0.613 | $67.43 |
| 07-29 11:14 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.778 | $77.80 |
| 07-27 21:38 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.969 | $14.53 |
| 07-27 10:47 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.988 | $14.81 |
| 07-27 10:45 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.988 | $14.81 |
| 07-27 10:44 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.987 | $88.83 |
| 07-27 10:44 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.954 | $47.27 |