LXF0413
0x438c91ff35df5a82c2e1d00679ed27b77c2f986b
- Realised P&L
- $-116.16
- Volume
- $25.3k
- Markets traded
- 325
- Open portfolio
- $65.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded325
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 6? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.245 | $24.97 | +$1.53 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.109 | 0.100 | $21.50 | −$2.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 6? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.205 | $19.28 | +$0.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$356.90at 0.280Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 30?
- +$158.89at 0.200Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 3?
- +$75.10at 0.180Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 4?
- +$56.63at 0.490Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
- +$55.03at 0.487Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 14:11 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.11 | $13.32 |
| 08-04 14:11 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.50 |
| 08-04 14:01 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.2 | $9.80 |
| 08-04 13:51 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.23 | $17.25 |
| 08-04 00:52 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.18 | $4.50 |
| 08-04 00:42 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.421852014 | $19.27 |
| 08-04 00:42 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.051899595 | $10.38 |
| 08-04 00:31 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.21 | $21.76 |
| 08-04 00:29 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.46 | $30.61 |
| 08-03 18:22 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.11 | $3.99 |
| 08-03 18:18 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.56 |
| 08-03 10:27 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 10:10 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.9944548 | $198.89 |
| 08-02 08:47 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.12 | $28.09 |
| 08-02 03:46 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.2 | $40.00 |