PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

HagiwaraSr.

0x402a17926f7304493322b3f35fdbd642c631a7e7

Realised P&L
$-1.3k
Volume
$33.7k
Markets traded
18
Open portfolio
$685.50

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded18
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration52.6% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample7 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.1130.130$685.50+$91.28
Ethereum all time high in 2024? · Yes0.0420.000$0.00$504.00
Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? · Yes0.0300.000$0.00$15.00
France loses visa-free access to any African nation in 2024? · Yes0.5920.000$0.00$262.59
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0080.000$0.00$10.00
Will Ayyoub Bouaddi win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1660.000$0.00$25.00
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0030.000$0.00$1.00
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.4420.000$0.00$1.1k
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0200.000$0.00$10.00
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00$1.00
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00$30.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-14 09:20Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.1299999996$289.96
07-07 13:05Will Ayyoub Bouaddi win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1656705789$25.00
06-30 18:02Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?BUY0.109999997$30.00
06-30 18:01Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?SELL0.11$37.19
05-10 01:06Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.1$338.07
01-21 07:25Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0199088771$10.00
01-21 07:24Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.008$10.00
01-21 07:24Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.003$1.00
01-21 07:23Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.002$1.00
09-30 23:32Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET?SELL0.91$1.6k
09-30 12:51Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET?BUY0.65$82.02
12-21 10:24Ethereum all time high in 2024?BUY0.042$473.63
10-29 07:24Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?BUY0.337$101.10
10-25 07:19Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?BUY0.365$109.50
10-19 01:40Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?BUY0.403$80.60