HagiwaraSr.
0x402a17926f7304493322b3f35fdbd642c631a7e7
- Realised P&L
- $-1.3k
- Volume
- $33.7k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $685.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.113 | 0.130 | $685.50 | +$91.28 |
| Ethereum all time high in 2024? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$504.00 |
| Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| France loses visa-free access to any African nation in 2024? · Yes | 0.592 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$262.59 |
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Ayyoub Bouaddi win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.166 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.442 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$563.39at 0.470Jordan Bardella next Prime Minister of France?
- +$468.00at 0.650Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET?
- +$21.75at 0.802Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
- +$14.93at 0.770Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
- +$3.21at 0.992Will NFP win the most seats in the French election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-14 09:20 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1299999996 | $289.96 |
| 07-07 13:05 | Will Ayyoub Bouaddi win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1656705789 | $25.00 |
| 06-30 18:02 | Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? | BUY | 0.109999997 | $30.00 |
| 06-30 18:01 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.11 | $37.19 |
| 05-10 01:06 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1 | $338.07 |
| 01-21 07:25 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0199088771 | $10.00 |
| 01-21 07:24 | Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.008 | $10.00 |
| 01-21 07:24 | Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.00 |
| 01-21 07:23 | Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 23:32 | Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET? | SELL | 0.91 | $1.6k |
| 09-30 12:51 | Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET? | BUY | 0.65 | $82.02 |
| 12-21 10:24 | Ethereum all time high in 2024? | BUY | 0.042 | $473.63 |
| 10-29 07:24 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.337 | $101.10 |
| 10-25 07:19 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.365 | $109.50 |
| 10-19 01:40 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.403 | $80.60 |