h3lgaviking
0x3efc233366eadc00f91dd8b169a9db2147355e48
- Realised P&L
- $-2.6k
- Volume
- $11.9k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $239.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-22.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.940 | 0.945 | $64.26 | +$0.34 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-28 House seat? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.940 | $60.63 | +$0.64 |
| Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.935 | $49.55 | −$0.27 |
| Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? · No | 0.955 | 0.968 | $45.50 | +$0.61 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.968 | 0.954 | $20.02 | −$0.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$560.00at 0.500Solana Up or Down on July 29?
- +$363.12at 0.660Rockies vs. Brewers
- +$269.12at 0.710Phillies vs. Rockies
- +$4.43at 0.940Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
- +$3.36at 0.940Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-09 08:48 | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $50.00 |
| 03-11 10:04 | Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9909999997 | $20.79 |
| 12-12 13:04 | Kraken vs. Utah | BUY | 0.38 | $31.92 |
| 08-04 13:10 | Padres vs. Diamondbacks | BUY | 0.56 | $539.84 |
| 06-27 13:32 | Rockies vs. Brewers | BUY | 0.66 | $704.88 |
| 05-29 13:55 | Braves vs. Phillies | BUY | 0.54 | $550.26 |
| 05-26 08:26 | Cardinals vs. Orioles | BUY | 0.51 | $520.20 |
| 05-19 08:55 | Phillies vs. Rockies | BUY | 0.71 | $658.88 |
| 05-09 10:10 | Golden Knights vs. Oilers | BUY | 0.53 | $525.76 |