0x3E58641210a528cCE1f9EA44790657aa1eF693E0-1768922832767
0x3e58641210a528cce1f9ea44790657aa1ef693e0
- Realised P&L
- $362.27
- Volume
- $39.9k
- Markets traded
- 658
- Open portfolio
- $2.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded658
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.004 | $1.53 | −$2.93 |
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.001 | $0.69 | −$5.31 |
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C or below on August 5? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.001 | $0.16 | −$1.84 |
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 4? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.001 | $0.08 | −$0.23 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 4? · Yes | 0.103 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$2.99 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 4? · Yes | 0.489 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$4.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$180.82at 0.002Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 13?
- +$139.38at 0.181Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on August 4?
- +$72.84at 0.002Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 13?
- +$45.14at 0.090Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 3?
- +$42.65at 0.346Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 17:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 1PM ET | BUY | 0.2899998666 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 17:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 1PM ET | BUY | 0.4199999832 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 16:57 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on August 4? | SELL | 0.996 | $170.38 |
| 08-04 12:56 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.0465009648 | $5.06 |
| 08-04 12:28 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.1112683706 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 12:28 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.0901433279 | $9.00 |
| 08-04 12:02 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.08 |
| 08-04 12:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 8AM ET | BUY | 0.4199999832 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 11:32 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on August 4? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 11:32 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.0133705028 | $1.91 |
| 08-04 11:32 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on August 4? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $10.00 |
| 08-04 11:31 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on August 4? | BUY | 0.809999998 | $8.00 |
| 08-04 09:34 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.98 | $4.08 |
| 08-04 08:51 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 08:51 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on August 4? | BUY | 0.1652284343 | $1.00 |