0x3db89c33dd21e597ada30e6fab83b4e479e89038
- Realised P&L
- $-68.40
- Volume
- $13.2k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $3.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? · No | 0.080 | 0.085 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.095 | $0.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.039 | $0.66 | −$0.34 |
| Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.021 | $0.59 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.14at 0.140Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 29?
- +$2.36at 0.133Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?
- +$1.93at 0.149Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026?
- +$1.44at 0.330Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 29?
- +$0.66at 0.890Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 03:33 | Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? | SELL | 0.08 | $1.45 |
| 08-04 03:30 | Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k? | SELL | 0.447 | $3.36 |
| 08-03 10:30 | Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more? | BUY | 0.0569999679 | $1.59 |
| 08-01 10:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET | BUY | 0.3599999376 | $3.00 |
| 07-31 21:18 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.39 | $3.90 |
| 07-31 21:17 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.4 | $4.00 |
| 07-31 21:15 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 21:14 | Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? | BUY | 0.1099999521 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 21:13 | Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k? | BUY | 0.1329999022 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 21:12 | Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | BUY | 0.0589999464 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 21:11 | Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 04-30 21:44 | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $4.05 |
| 04-30 21:22 | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY | 0.0047356059 | $14.92 |
| 04-30 21:18 | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.24 |
| 04-30 21:18 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.06 |