Kieran993
0x3d1c200c56a85fec83be2b45dd2bfe028caea066
- Realised P&L
- $-30.95
- Volume
- $6.7k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $4.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New COVID variant of concern before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.120 | $3.79 | −$2.21 |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes | 0.579 | 0.217 | $1.13 | −$1.87 |
| Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET · Up | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET · Up | 0.162 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET · Down | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? · No | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET · Up | 0.694 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET · Up | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET · Down | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.00at 0.250Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
- +$12.24at 0.290Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?
- +$4.41at 0.312Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
- +$4.20at 0.412Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
- +$3.55at 0.220Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-21 12:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 12:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 12:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | SELL | 0.79 | $1.29 |
| 06-21 12:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 12:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | SELL | 0.51 | $2.13 |
| 06-21 12:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 12:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | BUY | 0.4699998778 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 12:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | SELL | 0.49 | $2.00 |
| 06-21 12:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 12:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 12:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | BUY | 0.5699998233 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 12:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | BUY | 0.5699998233 | $1.00 |
| 06-05 11:05 | Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 06-05 11:05 | Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET | BUY | 0.5599998432 | $1.00 |
| 06-05 11:05 | Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $1.00 |