0x3C0c526509026910bA6D7d4219bf4383F1f24597-1774441829025
0x3c0c526509026910ba6d7d4219bf4383f1f24597
- Realised P&L
- $228.55
- Volume
- $16.4k
- Markets traded
- 1,773
- Open portfolio
- $519.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,773
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration24.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on August 4? · Up | 0.976 | 0.986 | $285.09 | +$2.81 |
| Will Meta (META) close above $600 on August 4? · No | 0.978 | 0.955 | $86.64 | −$2.04 |
| Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on August 4? · Down | 0.920 | 0.910 | $45.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $132 in August? · Yes | 0.980 | 0.990 | $28.94 | +$0.29 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $144 in August? · Yes | 0.970 | 0.971 | $28.85 | +$0.01 |
| Will Meta (META) close above $590 on August 4? · No | 0.860 | 0.795 | $15.90 | −$1.30 |
| Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $290 on August 4? · No | 0.980 | 0.905 | $10.22 | −$0.85 |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 on August 4? · No | 0.988 | 0.981 | $9.80 | −$0.07 |
| Will Matt Damon be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.830 | $3.27 | +$0.91 |
| Will “The Bear” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.007 | $2.67 | −$1.02 |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.159 | 0.070 | $2.25 | −$2.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.00at 0.761Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on July 31?
- +$31.37at 0.897Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 31?
- +$27.28at 0.423Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
- +$15.09at 0.570Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
- +$11.42at 0.821Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on August 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 12:15 | Will Meta (META) close above $600 on August 4? | BUY | 0.98 | $66.80 |
| 08-04 12:03 | Will Meta (META) close above $590 on August 4? | BUY | 0.86 | $17.20 |
| 08-04 12:01 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 on August 4? | BUY | 0.988 | $9.87 |
| 08-04 11:52 | Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $290 on August 4? | BUY | 0.98 | $11.06 |
| 08-04 11:51 | Will Meta (META) close above $600 on August 4? | BUY | 0.97 | $21.88 |
| 08-04 04:07 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $144 in August? | BUY | 0.97 | $28.84 |
| 08-04 04:00 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $138 in August? | BUY | 0.98 | $22.54 |
| 08-03 22:10 | Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on August 4? | BUY | 0.98 | $245.00 |
| 08-03 21:26 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $132 in August? | BUY | 0.98 | $12.06 |
| 08-03 21:00 | Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on August 4? | BUY | 0.9490936864 | $37.28 |
| 08-03 19:59 | Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on August 3? | BUY | 0.99 | $18.51 |
| 08-03 18:46 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $310 on August 3? | BUY | 0.99 | $14.85 |
| 08-03 18:42 | Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on August 3? | BUY | 0.99 | $16.28 |
| 08-03 18:41 | Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on August 3? | BUY | 0.99 | $24.75 |
| 08-03 17:56 | Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on August 3? | BUY | 0.98 | $11.96 |