rmac83
0x392f15466f6a83dda740049895d737ab7b6b7f65
- Realised P&L
- $-61.10
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 70
- Open portfolio
- $3.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded70
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30? · No | 0.650 | 0.805 | $3.08 | +$0.59 |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? · No | 0.130 | 0.006 | $0.18 | −$3.82 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Andrew Cuomo get between 25% and 30% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.44 |
| No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.107 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.67at 0.300Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-09-17?
- +$4.00at 0.550New US sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justices by September 30?
- +$2.69at 0.382Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9?
- +$2.56at 0.310Steelers vs. Bengals
- +$2.21at 0.819Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-18 14:57 | Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30? | BUY | 0.6499999478 | $2.49 |
| 06-18 14:56 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | BUY | 0.4899999534 | $2.00 |
| 06-18 14:50 | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BUY | 0.129999975 | $4.00 |
| 03-16 14:46 | Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.007033601 | $6.34 |
| 03-16 14:46 | No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1069999831 | $5.00 |
| 10-27 14:28 | Will UP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.00 |
| 10-23 22:22 | Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.08 |
| 10-23 22:22 | Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | SELL | 0.28 | $1.08 |
| 10-19 21:18 | Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.03 |
| 10-19 21:18 | Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | SELL | 0.64 | $1.03 |
| 10-19 21:16 | Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October? | BUY | 0.219999862 | $1.02 |
| 10-19 21:15 | Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? | SELL | 0.68 | $1.03 |
| 10-18 23:28 | Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October? | BUY | 0.1699998972 | $1.29 |
| 10-18 20:43 | Will the Bank of Brazil raise the Selic rate after November 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.0189999817 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 01:59 | Will the Bank of Brazil raise the Selic rate after November 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.0289999724 | $1.00 |