0x38b0e72e490785758538aab062c754b783d62d24
- Realised P&L
- $5.36
- Volume
- $641.00
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $18.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? · Yes | 0.290 | 1.000 | $9.00 | +$6.39 |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.225 | $4.05 | −$3.51 |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.063 | $3.15 | +$1.70 |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.200 | $1.00 | −$0.85 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.195 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.041 | $0.41 | −$0.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.74at 0.500Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$11.84at 0.209Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$1.10at 0.680Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$1.00at 0.660Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.71at 0.475Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 22:02 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.44 |
| 07-04 15:16 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 06-14 02:01 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.31 | $1.86 |
| 05-30 23:39 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.923 | $8.31 |
| 05-30 23:39 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.68 | $7.48 |
| 05-30 23:38 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.60 |
| 05-30 23:38 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.66 | $3.30 |
| 05-30 23:38 | Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.10 |
| 05-30 23:37 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 05-23 05:27 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.439 | $3.95 |
| 05-23 05:27 | Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? | BUY | 0.952 | $5.71 |
| 05-23 05:26 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $6.64 |
| 05-23 05:26 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.60 |
| 05-20 23:28 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.54 | $2.70 |
| 05-20 23:27 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $5.81 |