0xFranky
0x3791d1f8d978058ef7bc765995e37f047738158f
- Realised P&L
- $-6.0k
- Volume
- $1.61M
- Markets traded
- 315
- Open portfolio
- $708.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded315
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.825 | $354.75 | −$19.25 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.755 | $274.25 | +$1.82 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.935 | 0.880 | $79.20 | −$4.96 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? · No | 0.666 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$66.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.1kat 0.075Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$11.5kat 0.048Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$5.0kat 0.001Will UP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
- +$4.6kat 0.014Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
- +$3.8kat 0.300Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 16:00 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July? | BUY | 0.55 | $27.50 |
| 07-17 15:40 | Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.53 | $160.20 |
| 07-15 05:48 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July? | BUY | 0.912 | $13.69 |
| 07-14 14:03 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | BUY | 0.666 | $66.60 |
| 07-14 14:01 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | BUY | 0.842 | $84.20 |
| 07-07 08:29 | Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.5 | $100.00 |
| 06-14 20:58 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $50.00 |
| 06-14 20:49 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $70.00 |
| 06-14 09:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET | BUY | 0.98 | $5.00 |
| 06-14 09:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET | BUY | 0.92 | $5.00 |
| 03-31 07:29 | Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $117.00 |
| 03-28 06:30 | Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.8 | $160.00 |
| 03-28 06:22 | Base FDV above $10B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.81 | $65.23 |
| 03-28 06:17 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.56 | $149.22 |
| 03-27 14:05 | Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.58 | $58.58 |