LooseMathematician
0x3694556df8d5fc3a2e5cb6b7f1b1666d8dd6bd9e
- Realised P&L
- $-116.96
- Volume
- $23.5k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $894.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.31at 0.283Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?
- +$10.99at 0.901US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
- +$9.42at 0.630Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
- +$8.19at 0.716Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
- +$6.77at 0.200Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:35 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.49 | $8.63 |
| 08-02 21:15 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | SELL | 0.602 | $17.80 |
| 08-02 09:28 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.43 | $19.40 |
| 08-02 04:01 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.98 | $9.80 |
| 08-02 03:26 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | SELL | 0.9 | $55.03 |
| 08-01 19:15 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $5.78 |
| 08-01 19:06 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.043 | $11.09 |
| 08-01 18:03 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | BUY | 0.95 | $10.53 |
| 08-01 17:08 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.202 | $6.49 |
| 08-01 15:23 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.196 | $19.84 |
| 08-01 15:13 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $7.08 |
| 08-01 15:13 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $6.54 |
| 08-01 15:05 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.209 | $6.96 |
| 08-01 14:44 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $9.10 |
| 08-01 14:32 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $43.05 |