0x366600E2990Af0BD4ABC962F70b85A605FCeAab6-1778632856637
0x366600e2990af0bd4abc962f70b85a605fceaab6
- Realised P&L
- $21.9k
- Volume
- $246.2k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $14.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? · No | 0.993 | 0.995 | $11.8k | +$22.90 |
| Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in July? · No | 0.999 | 0.996 | $847.20 | −$2.98 |
| Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in July? · No | 0.998 | 0.997 | $737.76 | −$1.35 |
| Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in July? · No | 0.999 | 0.990 | $306.35 | −$2.94 |
| Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in July? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $194.90 | +$0.10 |
| Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in July? · No | 0.999 | 0.994 | $89.64 | −$0.45 |
| Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in July? · No | 0.995 | 0.982 | $73.85 | −$1.02 |
| Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in July? · No | 0.999 | 0.989 | $53.38 | −$0.57 |
| Will Trump speak to Miguel Díaz-Canel in July? · No | 0.987 | 0.993 | $14.89 | +$0.09 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$484.78 |
| Will Donald Trump dance on May 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.2kat 0.058US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
- +$3.3kat 0.793Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?
- +$3.1kat 0.720UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
- +$2.3kat 0.775France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
- +$965.41at 0.284Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 13:39 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.993 | $7.0k |
| 08-03 12:53 | Will Trump speak to Miguel Díaz-Canel in July? | BUY | 0.987 | $14.80 |
| 08-03 12:52 | Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in July? | BUY | 0.995 | $74.86 |
| 08-03 12:52 | Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $53.95 |
| 08-03 12:52 | Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $194.81 |
| 08-03 12:51 | Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $90.09 |
| 08-03 12:51 | Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $309.29 |
| 08-03 12:51 | Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $850.18 |
| 08-03 12:51 | Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in July? | BUY | 0.9983246437 | $739.11 |
| 07-24 18:28 | Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.9172286305 | $1.4k |
| 07-21 06:02 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.91 |
| 07-20 09:07 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.995 | $5.06 |
| 07-20 01:24 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.9895963854 | $387.12 |
| 07-20 01:05 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.986 | $919.04 |
| 07-19 19:28 | Will Antonela Roccuzzo attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final? | BUY | 0.999 | $92.91 |