0x3152BFfafFEb21bD5f8D6B48E5013B22714de8C6-1769427083916
0x3152bffaffeb21bd5f8d6b48e5013b22714de8c6
- Realised P&L
- $-43.12
- Volume
- $5.8k
- Markets traded
- 299
- Open portfolio
- $10.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded299
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.905 | $5.07 | +$0.14 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.255 | $4.53 | −$0.27 |
| Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.012 | $0.89 | −$3.06 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 10? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.25 |
| Spread: Spurs (-16.5) · Spurs | 0.403 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.38 |
| Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 · Over | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.90 |
| Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx · Seattle Storm | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.94 |
| Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) · Minnesota Twins | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.53 |
| Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 · Over | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.68 |
| Spurs vs. Knicks · Spurs | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 · Over | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.91 |
| Spread: Spurs (-10.5) · Spurs | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.98 |
| Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) · Colorado Rockies | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.05 |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers · Detroit Tigers | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.01 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks · Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.16at 0.268Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)
- +$8.90at 0.110Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-28?
- +$6.11at 0.450Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
- +$5.80at 0.620Spurs vs. Knicks
- +$3.78at 0.570Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-26 22:44 | Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? | BUY | 0.0529869311 | $3.95 |
| 07-25 17:23 | Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.12 | $3.15 |
| 07-10 09:10 | Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.1799999741 | $4.73 |
| 07-10 09:09 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2699999707 | $4.80 |
| 07-10 08:26 | Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 10? | BUY | 0.27 | $1.46 |
| 07-10 08:15 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 10? | SELL | 0.56 | $5.39 |
| 07-10 05:23 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 10? | SELL | 0.49 | $2.71 |
| 07-10 00:18 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 10? | BUY | 0.6299999811 | $5.00 |
| 07-09 16:55 | Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 9? | SELL | 0.91 | $8.20 |
| 07-09 13:53 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 9? | BUY | 0.6499999675 | $5.00 |
| 06-28 15:24 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.8799999857 | $4.93 |
| 06-27 20:47 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.61 | $8.08 |
| 06-27 03:03 | Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) | BUY | 0.1 | $1.53 |
| 06-13 17:27 | Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | SELL | 0.8 | $6.78 |
| 06-11 02:47 | Spread: Spurs (-16.5) | BUY | 0.4026457139 | $4.38 |