0x2bfe1d58e94B589a8B6650cF860e8aaa9712496f-1772222747283
0x2bfe1d58e94b589a8b6650cf860e8aaa9712496f
- Realised P&L
- $-615.88
- Volume
- $126.0k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $7.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration31.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.001 | $7.01 | −$32.98 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? · Yes | 0.084 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$136.33at 0.278Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?
- +$134.11at 0.087Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
- +$86.60at 0.659Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
- +$80.59at 0.197Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$-24.20at 0.403Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 10:25 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? | BUY | 0.0028534782 | $40.00 |
| 07-23 06:05 | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | SELL | 0.1270309333 | $428.11 |
| 07-21 17:05 | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | BUY | 0.0872363866 | $294.00 |
| 06-11 13:49 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.0837816772 | $200.00 |
| 05-24 15:13 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | BUY | 0.0599999995 | $100.00 |
| 03-16 13:41 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SELL | 0.7709390179 | $598.35 |
| 03-15 21:18 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BUY | 0.659356813 | $511.75 |
| 03-14 11:03 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.035630266 | $511.75 |
| 03-09 21:24 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.059021405 | $847.71 |
| 03-03 10:38 | US forces enter Iran by March 3? | SELL | 0.0019782568 | $48.01 |
| 03-03 09:18 | US forces enter Iran by March 3? | BUY | 0.01699915 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 09:18 | US forces enter Iran by March 3? | BUY | 0.0159968006 | $200.00 |
| 03-01 20:53 | US forces enter Iran by March 3? | SELL | 0.0347540184 | $143.68 |
| 03-01 08:27 | US forces enter Iran by March 3? | BUY | 0.0725665608 | $300.00 |
| 02-28 19:45 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.399 | $1.4k |