0x2bfa78adbad30be413d860c37ece464c63cff472
- Realised P&L
- $1.10
- Volume
- $464.00
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $46.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration82.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.935 | $14.96 | +$1.52 |
| Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.959 | 0.975 | $14.62 | +$0.23 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.808 | 0.908 | $6.36 | +$0.70 |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.620 | $3.72 | +$1.26 |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.063 | $3.15 | +$1.70 |
| Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.195 | $1.75 | −$0.68 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.120 | $1.68 | −$1.40 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.065 | $0.33 | −$0.67 |
| Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? · Yes | 0.229 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.44at 0.500U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
- +$2.61at 0.092Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.50at 0.790Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
- +$0.10at 0.330Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.08at 0.933China coup attempt before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 18:35 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.808 | $5.66 |
| 06-16 12:10 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.879 | $7.03 |
| 06-09 18:52 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.876 | $4.38 |
| 06-07 05:01 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.339 | $1.70 |
| 06-06 04:39 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.61 |
| 06-03 09:31 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.928 | $5.57 |
| 06-01 08:53 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.923 | $6.46 |
| 05-26 02:20 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.924 | $7.39 |
| 05-26 02:20 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.67 | $6.03 |
| 05-26 02:19 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.33 | $3.30 |
| 04-27 13:03 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 04-15 17:46 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 04-15 17:46 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.89 |
| 04-15 17:46 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.092 | $1.66 |
| 04-15 17:46 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.908 | $6.36 |