winner-king
0x2adb6e27c4218fabc149d4ca7596a7a9dcc03088
- Realised P&L
- $235.93
- Volume
- $217.9k
- Markets traded
- 203
- Open portfolio
- $57.51
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded203
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.978 | 0.975 | $52.62 | −$0.16 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.025 | $3.05 | +$0.32 |
| Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.005 | $1.66 | −$43.73 |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.007 | $0.16 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.001Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
- +$1.0kat 0.613Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$699.51at 0.846Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
- +$120.84at 0.029Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$110.29at 0.015Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-11 02:20 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.0362862617 | $7.77 |
| 05-10 00:32 | Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.60 |
| 05-10 00:31 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.028 | $12.96 |
| 05-09 16:39 | UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early Prelims) | SELL | 0.12 | $1.3k |
| 05-09 16:22 | UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) | SELL | 0.55 | $1.4k |
| 05-09 00:22 | Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.979 | $204.61 |
| 05-07 19:09 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? | SELL | 0.1 | $11.50 |
| 05-07 15:28 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $5.84 |
| 05-07 15:26 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0560661432 | $31.63 |
| 05-07 05:52 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? | SELL | 0.072 | $2.30 |
| 05-06 23:29 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.012 | $6.00 |
| 05-06 03:59 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $1.2k |
| 03-31 02:48 | Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.016 | $0.86 |
| 03-27 00:53 | Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.026 | $0.70 |
| 02-26 00:09 | Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET | BUY | 0.61 | $16.56 |