0x29474e5232bc95fa5cdf88f0a94018c58c9c4cf4
- Realised P&L
- $285.64
- Volume
- $56.7k
- Markets traded
- 580
- Open portfolio
- $167.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded580
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.185 | $37.00 | +$17.00 |
| Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.355 | $36.51 | +$0.51 |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? · No | 0.241 | 0.045 | $30.48 | −$132.52 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.380 | $25.09 | +$19.14 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.485 | $24.25 | +$4.25 |
| Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.070 | $10.50 | −$13.50 |
| Will Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.022 | $2.62 | −$0.14 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.078 | $0.78 | −$0.42 |
| Will Nigel Farage win less than 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.006 | $0.65 | −$0.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$208.43at 0.297Will Trump say "Kharg Island" this week? (April 12)
- +$155.30at 0.648Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?
- +$118.00at 0.410Will Bernie Sanders say "One Percent" or "One Percenter" 3+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?
- +$113.00at 0.200Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- +$90.97at 0.524Will Trump say "Kharg Island" during events with Japanese PM?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-17 22:34 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? | BUY | 0.41 | $10.25 |
| 06-17 22:31 | Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.65 | $16.25 |
| 06-17 22:28 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.41 | $16.40 |
| 06-17 22:22 | Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | BUY | 0.53 | $16.43 |
| 06-17 21:45 | Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? | SELL | 0.76 | $76.00 |
| 06-14 15:14 | Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.51 | $15.30 |
| 06-14 15:11 | Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.62 | $24.80 |
| 06-14 15:10 | Will England win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.76 | $30.40 |
| 06-14 15:00 | Will England win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.57 | $17.10 |
| 06-08 21:51 | Will Trump say "Job" 2+ times during Tele-Rally? | BUY | 0.58 | $23.20 |
| 06-08 11:35 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.218 | $23.98 |
| 06-07 19:26 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4493636364 | $49.43 |
| 05-20 11:32 | Will Starmer say "Opposition" or "Opposite" 5+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | BUY | 0.6 | $2.68 |
| 05-20 11:29 | Will Starmer say "Opposition" or "Opposite" 5+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | BUY | 0.59 | $23.60 |
| 05-20 11:26 | Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | SELL | 0.26 | $2.08 |