rlaghksquf
0x2946afc37ce5a8b1051b051f2fdb23f2be7d8eb4
- Realised P&L
- $-609.63
- Volume
- $235.7k
- Markets traded
- 431
- Open portfolio
- $2.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded431
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m? · No | 0.309 | 0.005 | $1.25 | −$68.75 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 300m and 310m? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.001 | $0.36 | −$4.64 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 320m and 330m? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.001 | $0.32 | −$9.68 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 330m and 340m? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.001 | $0.25 | −$49.75 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET · Down | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.064Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$646.51at 0.202UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)
- +$317.15at 0.013Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
- +$242.77at 0.167Will the announcers say "Qatar" or "Russia" during the Argentina vs Egypt FIFA World Cup Match?
- +$225.27at 0.180Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the USA vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 02:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET | BUY | 0.1399999787 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 02:49 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m? | BUY | 0.3091168073 | $70.00 |
| 08-01 02:40 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 330m and 340m? | BUY | 0.0985324397 | $50.00 |
| 08-01 02:39 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 320m and 330m? | BUY | 0.0157033696 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 02:38 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 300m and 310m? | BUY | 0.0069440104 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 02:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET | BUY | 0.1699999952 | $24.27 |
| 07-17 02:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET | BUY | 0.32 | $25.00 |
| 07-17 02:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET | BUY | 0.0876716172 | $25.00 |
| 07-17 02:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET | BUY | 0.602678656 | $25.00 |
| 07-17 01:37 | Will Trump say "Million," "Billion," or "Trillion" 20+ times during Speech to the Nation? | BUY | 0.0020630845 | $1.00 |
| 07-17 01:37 | Will Trump say "Ukraine" during Speech to the Nation? | BUY | 0.0041420119 | $1.00 |
| 07-17 01:37 | Will Trump say "Iraq" during Speech to the Nation? | BUY | 0.0025415419 | $1.00 |
| 07-17 01:37 | Will Trump say "World Cup" during Speech to the Nation? | BUY | 0.0021055469 | $1.00 |
| 07-17 01:33 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17? | BUY | 0.0091906796 | $10.00 |
| 07-11 15:28 | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.2999999975 | $59.45 |