0x28dcb1f497e8a8109c93b8bf2aee52e61ba1db05
- Realised P&L
- $7.73
- Volume
- $564.00
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $118.33
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.00at 0.300Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
- +$0.20at 0.927Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?
- +$-0.08at 0.073Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?
- +$-0.15at 0.117Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
- +$-2.10at 0.710Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 20:37 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $6.48 |
| 06-22 19:04 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.00 |
| 06-21 18:27 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $13.28 |
| 06-21 04:55 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $7.28 |
| 06-18 18:35 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.77 | $3.85 |
| 06-18 05:55 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.12 |
| 06-16 02:26 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.122 | $1.22 |
| 06-13 13:21 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $9.10 |
| 06-11 06:56 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.887 | $7.10 |
| 06-08 09:46 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $4.68 |
| 06-06 03:10 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.33 | $3.63 |
| 06-03 17:16 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.28 |
| 05-25 06:10 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.934 | $11.21 |
| 05-23 02:17 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.77 | $3.85 |
| 04-27 18:23 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.231 | $1.85 |