0x28a35e7f0815e2a31143ce239b5b9dfb8954f9e7
- Realised P&L
- $-5.99
- Volume
- $601.00
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $15.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.888 | 0.923 | $4.62 | +$0.18 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.120 | $3.60 | −$1.50 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.512 | 0.306 | $3.37 | −$2.26 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.065 | $2.67 | −$2.55 |
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.110 | $0.55 | −$0.65 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.215 | 0.076 | $0.38 | −$0.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.15at 0.500Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.89at 0.080Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- +$0.51at 0.330Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
- +$0.30at 0.790Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
- +$0.21at 0.926Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 17:46 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.215 | $1.07 |
| 07-05 05:04 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 07-04 15:51 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.977 | $4.88 |
| 06-21 22:50 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 06-17 16:01 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.20 |
| 06-13 12:31 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.888 | $4.44 |
| 06-07 11:01 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.70 |
| 06-04 10:21 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.17 |
| 06-01 21:40 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.512 | $5.63 |
| 06-01 21:40 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.20 |
| 06-01 21:40 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.947 | $7.58 |
| 06-01 21:39 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.923 | $4.62 |
| 04-26 16:18 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.465 | $5.58 |
| 04-26 16:18 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.535 | $6.96 |
| 04-26 16:18 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.072 | $1.80 |