0x258b74b14e9df918b207043da2c9828a5dd4db84
- Realised P&L
- $-4.0k
- Volume
- $172.1k
- Markets traded
- 6,920
- Open portfolio
- $18.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded6,920
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration27.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET · Up | 0.524 | 0.495 | $9.44 | −$0.56 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 August 3-9? · Yes | 0.567 | 0.445 | $7.85 | −$2.15 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No | 0.760 | 0.725 | $0.95 | −$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$101.45at 0.659Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on May 5?
- +$66.65at 0.484Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 11?
- +$66.15at 0.130Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
- +$46.63at 0.707Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
- +$44.19at 0.610S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 09:54 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.5544554049 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 09:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET | BUY | 0.5399999654 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 09:52 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.6 | $4.84 |
| 08-04 09:50 | Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August? | SELL | 0.47 | $4.89 |
| 08-04 09:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? | SELL | 0.48 | $4.80 |
| 08-04 09:48 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6199999628 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 09:45 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.5799999954 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 09:13 | Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August? | BUY | 0.4799999808 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 09:12 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 07:24 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 4? | SELL | 0.76 | $6.62 |
| 08-04 07:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down on August 4? | SELL | 0.58 | $31.31 |
| 08-04 05:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down on August 4? | BUY | 0.4199999885 | $7.31 |
| 08-04 05:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999796 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 05:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down on August 4? | BUY | 0.4099999934 | $15.00 |
| 08-04 02:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | SELL | 0.8289686099 | $7.39 |