0x2319e6df61d3b2d42fa09f066d5de9cb7075f1ef
- Realised P&L
- $35.15
- Volume
- $454.53
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $59.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 4? · Yes | 0.786 | 1.000 | $59.04 | +$12.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.49at 0.417Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 31?
- +$9.20at 0.200Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 31?
- +$7.57at 0.560Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?
- +$5.76at 0.480Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 30?
- +$0.02at 0.028Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 12:01 | Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.978 | $0.93 |
| 08-03 22:46 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.03 |
| 08-03 19:17 | Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.7937162464 | $39.70 |
| 08-03 17:37 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on August 3? | SELL | 0.4 | $4.00 |
| 08-03 15:57 | Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.75 | $7.50 |
| 08-03 15:33 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 3? | BUY | 0.0110000002 | $1.04 |
| 08-03 15:20 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on August 3? | BUY | 0.435 | $4.35 |
| 08-03 04:58 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.6 | $8.26 |
| 08-03 00:51 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.3057770075 | $5.29 |
| 08-02 22:34 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.51 | $8.83 |
| 08-01 20:49 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 1? | BUY | 0.02 | $0.33 |
| 07-31 03:21 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $1.44 |
| 07-31 03:06 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.30 |
| 07-31 03:05 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.4171717008 | $11.80 |
| 07-31 01:57 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.5599999977 | $9.64 |