Mariah1034
0x22201c515b95a4ef69233e3d1476d0680c92f7b3
- Realised P&L
- $-20.59
- Volume
- $32.6k
- Markets traded
- 326
- Open portfolio
- $89.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded326
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kyle Ursey advance to the general election for WA-05? · No | 0.999 | 0.984 | $27.79 | −$0.41 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C or higher on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $24.09 | −$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 5? · No | 0.997 | 1.000 | $21.69 | +$0.05 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 5? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.999 | $15.63 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.79at 0.995Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $20m?
- +$0.47at 0.997Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30?
- +$0.16at 0.999Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June?
- +$0.16at 0.999Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85-89?
- +$0.10at 0.956Solana above $240 on February 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 03:29 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C or higher on August 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.11 |
| 08-05 00:21 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.9969999697 | $21.64 |
| 08-04 20:27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.64 |
| 08-04 18:32 | Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 4? | BUY | 0.9969999793 | $21.00 |
| 08-04 15:16 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on August 4? | BUY | 0.9987085178 | $18.40 |
| 08-04 12:02 | Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.50 |
| 08-04 10:23 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.999 | $8.08 |
| 08-04 09:53 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.50 |
| 08-04 08:36 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.9989999483 | $13.30 |
| 08-04 06:55 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or below on August 5? | SELL | 0.998 | $21.90 |
| 08-04 04:49 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on August 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.80 |
| 08-04 04:34 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or below on August 5? | BUY | 0.9979999896 | $21.90 |
| 08-04 00:51 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.9989998885 | $8.09 |
| 08-03 19:50 | Will Kyle Ursey advance to the general election for WA-05? | BUY | 0.9986359516 | $28.20 |
| 08-03 17:05 | Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.10 |