PedroGonzales
0x21bac188598c79a827cd54c2db710775a49f408f
- Realised P&L
- $-4.8k
- Volume
- $209.3k
- Markets traded
- 202
- Open portfolio
- $43.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded202
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 2600 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.240 | $24.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? · Yes | 0.126 | 0.140 | $22.40 | +$2.20 |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.90 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No | 0.728 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$727.99 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.231 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.31 |
| Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.148 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$236.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$678.48at 0.144Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
- +$640.00at 0.787Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?
- +$514.72at 0.828Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
- +$461.13at 0.580Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
- +$453.68at 0.924Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 18:00 | Will there be at least 2600 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $27.00 |
| 07-27 18:52 | Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $87.00 |
| 07-24 18:45 | Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $10.20 |
| 07-23 05:29 | Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $92.00 |
| 07-13 16:57 | Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.231 | $2.31 |
| 07-13 16:57 | Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.935 | $93.50 |
| 07-01 15:02 | Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $6.50 |
| 06-21 16:55 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.961 | $720.75 |
| 06-21 09:58 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.961 | $240.25 |
| 06-18 19:30 | Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.56 | $56.00 |
| 06-18 05:44 | Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $132.00 |
| 06-17 20:22 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026? | BUY | 0.228 | $22.80 |
| 06-17 20:14 | Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $90.00 |
| 06-17 12:07 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.45 | $180.00 |
| 06-16 08:59 | Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $88.00 |