PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Tcroft

0x1f50b6817a2ceea2fa4ae5b42555efb5f82f9289

Realised P&L
$-133.04
Volume
$4.5k
Markets traded
15
Open portfolio
$14.21

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded15
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
Not knownProfit concentration
No settled positions sampled.
Not knownSettled sample0 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
CautionOpen concentration64.5% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · Yes0.1200.110$9.17$0.83
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? · No0.9911.000$5.05+$0.05
Will Trump say "Too late" during Fed chair announcement? · Yes0.0830.000$0.00$20.00
Will Trump say "Very Respected" during Fed chair announcement? · Yes0.0880.000$0.00$10.00
US government shutdown Saturday? · No0.1800.000$0.00$10.00
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? · No0.0190.000$0.00$3.00
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00$5.00
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00$3.00
Will Trump say "Governor" during Fed chair announcement? · Yes0.0830.000$0.00$10.00
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fed chair announcement? · Yes0.0340.000$0.00$10.00
Seahawks vs. Patriots · Patriots0.3200.000$0.00$20.00
Will Leavitt say "National Guard" during the next press briefing? · Yes0.5700.000$0.00$10.00
Will Trump say "Midterm Election" this week? (February 1) · Yes0.1300.000$0.00$10.00
Will a hurricane form by May 31? · Yes0.1190.000$0.00$10.00
Will Trump say "Mistake" during Fed chair announcement? · Yes0.1050.000$0.00$10.00

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
01-30 21:29Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?BUY0.0194699838$3.00
01-30 21:27Seahawks vs. PatriotsBUY0.32$20.00
01-30 21:24Will Leavitt say "National Guard" during the next press briefing?BUY0.5699999966$10.00
01-30 21:22Will Trump say "Midterm Election" this week? (February 1)BUY0.1299999902$10.00
01-30 21:21Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?BUY0.1199999899$10.00
01-30 21:20Will a hurricane form by May 31?BUY0.1195838382$10.00
01-30 21:19Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX?BUY0.0899999845$5.00
01-30 21:11Will GTA 6 cost $100+?BUY0.9909999332$5.00
01-30 21:05Will the US not strike another country before 2027?BUY0.001$3.00
01-30 21:02US government shutdown Saturday?BUY0.179999987$10.00
01-30 21:02Will Trump say "Too late" during Fed chair announcement?BUY0.0883579909$10.00
01-30 21:01Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fed chair announcement?BUY0.0336559285$10.00
01-30 21:00Will Trump say "Governor" during Fed chair announcement?BUY0.0829948912$10.00
01-30 20:59Will Trump say "Mistake" during Fed chair announcement?BUY0.1054621422$10.00
01-30 20:59Will Trump say "Very Respected" during Fed chair announcement?BUY0.0884722551$10.00