RenanSantos
0x1f4b5bdd7d150c613c6f43b431b46ac0bb951a1e
- Realised P&L
- $-6.0k
- Volume
- $101.7k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $3.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.125 | 0.075 | $3.5k | −$2.3k |
| Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.052 | $153.51 | −$27.79 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET · Up | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET · Up | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET · Up | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET · Down | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET · Down | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET · Up | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.50at 0.400Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
- +$3.31at 0.053Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$2.25at 0.690Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
- +$1.25at 0.800Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
- +$1.00at 0.833Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-16 17:30 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0826459459 | $180.75 |
| 07-14 20:45 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.018 | $180.62 |
| 07-07 23:41 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3299999992 | $160.00 |
| 07-07 17:31 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.018 | $169.10 |
| 07-03 06:46 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3419999996 | $391.39 |
| 07-03 06:32 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.341999999 | $185.09 |
| 07-02 20:05 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0919888391 | $300.00 |
| 07-02 18:30 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.11 | $709.78 |
| 07-02 03:56 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1809999996 | $300.00 |
| 07-02 00:47 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1074387284 | $100.00 |
| 07-01 18:40 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1049999996 | $200.00 |
| 07-01 14:17 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1013997361 | $300.00 |
| 07-01 11:48 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0960086904 | $200.00 |
| 06-30 06:41 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1129999994 | $160.74 |
| 06-30 06:37 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1939999999 | $1.5k |